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SARS CoV-2/COVID-19 Update 3: Quick Hits

“Caretake this moment. Immerse yourself in its particulars. Respond to this person, this challenge, this deed. Quit evasions. Stop giving yourself needless trouble. It is time to really live; to fully inhabit the situation you happen to be in now.”

― Epictetus

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( Again, with all of these posts, PLEASE be aware, that I am NOT an expert on medicine, investing, or data analysis.  Make the best decisions you can with the information compiled. Some of this is fact, some opinion. Also, please be mindful that this information will be obsolete in relatively no time.  In the SARS CoV-2/COVID-19 world we now live in, the rapid rate of change is head-spinning and dynamic in ways we’ve never seen. Thank the Lord we have the technology to communicate rapidly. Even with the irresponsible and reckless behavior reported, we would be FAR worse off without the technology we have in this day and age to communicate.”

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  • Health Perspective & Statistics:

 

    • 3/20/2020 had the single largest day of new confirmed cases ( more widely available testing helping contribute), of roughly 29,500.
    • AM 3/21/2020: 277,449 confirmed infections, and 11,561 deaths. 
    • Italy has now surpassed China in deaths due to the virus, even with having, roughly 55% of China’s confirmed cases.  The overwhelm to their healthcare system, and a population with higher rates of smokers appears to be contributing.
    • In the US, 19,624 cases confirmed, and 260 deaths.  New York saw the largest increases, with 8,403 confirmed cases, as of this writing.
    • The WHO ( World Health Organization) is reporting that there are 20 different vaccines currently being tested, and some already in clinical trials. While this is positive, the way forward can ( and should) be delayed for caution. The short and long-term effects, the potential for enhanced immune reaction ( meaning, actually making the disease worse) are very real challenges for a vaccine that could be delivered to the majority of the world’s population. We have to weigh the risk/benefits or rushing a vaccine.
    • Antiviral drugs, like Gileads Remdesivir, are being tested as potential therapies, and have been fast-tracked. 
    • Hopeful thoughts:  The US has seen increased lifestyle diseases of chronic nature for quite some time now ( diabetes, heart disease, obesity, etc).  COVID-19 has illustrated the need for a healthy lifestyle as a risk management strategy for individuals and the healthcare system capacity.  We can start living healthier lives NOW.   Additionally, I’m hopeful that there are young children watching the toll this is taking, and now are more interested in science, and will want to be become infectious disease doctors, nurses, etc.  This will serve as motivation for many young people.

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  • Economic Indications:
    • Consumer spending is 2/3 of the US economy.  With much of that spending at a complete stop, and with no real end date in sight, it’s not a secret that we’re going to be in rough shape financially. On 3/19/2020, Ray Dalio ( Head of Bridgewater ) had predicted GLOBAL corporate losses of $12 Trillion.
    • Delta airlines first said that they were cutting flight capacity by 15%.  Within a couple of days, they revised to 40%. Shortly after that, they again revised to cutting 70% of all flights.
    • Boeing has cut it’s dividend, stopped pay to the CEO and board, and has asked the US Government for a $60B bailout.
    • A $1 Trillion relief proposal is being looked at by Congress, and there will likely be more waves.
    • Money needs a place to go. Right now, it doesn’t have a place
    • This is not a political statement, but likely will be taken as one: Should you receive a check from the US Government, keep in mind, they’re giving you back your money.  More accurately, your Great Grandchildren’s money.
    • None of us know, but the forecasts for job losses from this are estimated between 500,000 and 5 Million.  That’s a hell of a range. For reference the worst month of job losses after the Fall of 2008 financial crisis was in March of 2009, where there were 800,000 job losses.  As of this writing, the State of Ohio, alone, had received 139,000 unemployment applications this week.
    • US Hospitals are seeking $100B bailout from the US Govt. as a stabilization fund. The AHA ( American Hospital Association) estimates that some hospitals are losing up to $1M/day.
    • The US delayed Tax filing deadlines from April 15 to July.
    • Hopeful Thoughts:  We are going to see some companies fail that we will be very surprised about.  We will see some weather this storm, that we’ll also be surprising. We’re already seeing companies be very nimble, making shifts, and adapting on the fly.  It’s inspiring. Necessity is the mother of invention, and we’ll see new companies spring from this that will have us better prepared to fight the next battle.  We’ll have new technologies, medicine, and a better understanding of how to move forward. We’ll keep improving, and it’s going to be amazing to see.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Random Quick Hits:
    • Correlation does not equal causation.  ( You can correlate people that watch the Bachelor having a higher rate of low speed vehicle accidents; both are due to not paying attention to what’s important at the time, but are probably not causal…probably).  Be careful of what you’re linking in your head during this time.
    • Speaking of what’s important,  many of you have likely seen the “Eisenhower Matrix.”  Feel free to use this when making important decisions over the duration.  While this particular matrix has a company feel, it applies to daily life of every person.eisenhower-matrix 2
    • If you’re finding yourself outside less, and as we go into spring, make sure you’re taking a vitamin D supplement.
    • Book Recommendations:  We’re watching the whole world go through the grieving process.  Some folks are at “denial”, others at “acceptance.” One thing every human will need to get through this is character.   These two books help define what that is, tell great stories of how it was applied through history, and outline what truly is important.  On a personal note, these two books had the most personal impact on me in the last year, and am grateful that I was able to find them.

 

 

 

Until Next Time.

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