SARS CoV-2/COVID-19 Update 3: Quick Hits & A Little Opinion

“Want of foresight, unwillingness to act when action would be simple and effective, lack of clear thinking, confusion of counsel until the emergency comes, until self-preservation strikes its jarring gong – these are the features which constitute the endless repetition of history.” – Winston Churchill

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• Numbers Update:  When I wrote, on 3/20/2020, there were 277,449 confirmed cases.  As I write this on 3/31/2020, the final day in March, there are 856,955 confirmed cases Worldwide, and 42,081 deaths.
• The US now has the highest number of reported cases, even though testing remains elusive. New York State alone accounts for 75,833 of them.

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• Economic Impact:
  • 3.2 Million jobless claims in one week. 4X the highest amount ever reported.
  • A $2T stimulus package signed by the US.
    • There was a time where nearly all legislation passed by the US Gov’t, purposely had a price tag shy of $1 Trillion. This was a psychological issue, rather than a realistic one. All lawmakers knew that their proposals would be far in excess of the estimates ( the Affordable Care Act comes to mind).
    • Now, we risk “Desensitization” to such large numbers; that the US somehow has unlimited funds to throw at any problem. That the risk of the US defaulting on it’s debt is not “real”, and that the consequences aren’t either.
    • % of GDP
  • The US Federal Reserve is reporting an unemployment estimate of 32%.  To think, 1/3rd of the country, not being able to produce…is a scary thought.  Speaking of “Thirds”…

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• Compliance on Social Distancing:
  • “Pride” has long been considered the deadliest sin.  The examples scattered throughout history continually repeat, though we have a tough time picking up the lesson.  From Cain and Abel, the two first natural born humans in the Bible, to a recent example of Netlfix’s Tiger King, and countless examples in between, our egos’ control remains firmly in tact. Why do we think we won’t catch this deadly virus? After all, the models show that we’ll likely end up with a population contraction rate of up to 70%. This means you’re far more likely to get it, than to not.  One worrying trend, is that we seem to want to contract this.  I don’t say that lightly, but we clearly engage in self-destructive behavior.
    • 1/3rd of our country is diabetic, or pre-diabetic.  That’s 110M Americans, that cost on average, $40,000 annually to treat ( and with switching health insurers every 2 yrs or so, we wonder why there’s no incentive to actually “fix” the problem…another issue for another day).  For the vast majority of those with Diabetes; it’s a lifestyle issue, and if we’re being really honest with ourselves, we know it’s self-destructive behavior.  But ‘hey, we live in an abundant world, don’t we? We’ve won. We never have to worry about food. We get all that we want; when we want.’ Well…it’s made us soft and unprepared.   It’s unfortunately, riddled us with disease; making us much more vulnerable hosts for a lethal virus.  Sadly, the US death and infection numbers will look worse than other countries, because of risky lifestyles created comorbidities too steep to overcome.
    • We’ve become so enamored with ‘self-care’, that we no longer know how to be tough, and resilient.  We’re easy on ourselves. We know a storm is coming, but we don’t prepare.   ( By the way, I’m not sparing myself from this criticism. I count myself among those that should be more resilient).
    • Our pride got in the way. We didn’t think it would be “us”, and here we are.  We have a tough time dealing with reality. We all do.  We have The Stoics, Viktor Frankl, Winston Churchill, Jim Stockdale, Ray Dalio and on, and on, telling us to look reality in the face, and respond accordingly.  We still have time to listen.

• • Now, a short anecdote, and not large scale data.  There are similar stories out there, but, the lack of compliance on the Social Distancing guidelines that are required .
    • I was out for a run.  The weather wasn’t awesome. 39 degrees Fahrenheit, and a slight chill. I was on a regular route near my house that is close to a dam with adjoining trails.  There’s a small park attached.  From time to time, there will be runners, cyclists, and families occupying the trail, but it’s certainly less populated on the less than idea weather days.  Well, today, with COVID-19 cancelling nearly every other possible activity, I had never seen so much traffic on the path, as well as the tighter quarters of the dam.  Under normal circumstances, I would be thrilled to see so many people out, being active.  We need it.  Today though, especially at the tighter quarters of the dam, it was very disconcerting.  People were not at all keeping themselves at a safe distance from others.  It was actually scary at times; as I bobbed and weaved through traffic, doing my best to keep a safe distance from all.  I’ve decided that I will only run outside during times where I’m less likely to come too close to a cough or sneeze.  I hate it, but it’s what’s necessary.  What I’m wishing for, and the reality of which I’m unable to control are different.  So, I’m trying to control myself.

“When we are no longer able to change a situation, we are challenged to change ourselves.” – Viktor Frankl.

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Interesting: North Korea states that they have no cases of COVID-19.

 

Future posts will have a different “feel” to them.  Focused on the aspect of ‘Time’ and historical responses to crises.